The Truth (The Wall of Shame)
Systems sold by gurus. Destroyed by math.
The Iron Cross
"Covers every number except 7."
The Math
Covers 30 of 36 outcomes but pays negative EV on all of them. Combined house edge across Place 5, 6, 8 + Field: ~3.2%. You're losing faster across more bets, not less.
Dice Setting / Dice Control
"Alter the outcome with your throw."
The Math
No peer-reviewed study has ever confirmed dice control under casino conditions. The randomness requirement is ~0.17 inches of variance. Human motor control cannot achieve this consistently.
The Martingale on Don't Pass
"Double down until you win."
The Math
Works until it doesn't. A 6-loss streak (1.56% probability per session) requires a bet of 64x your original unit. Most table maximums end the system before recovery. Expected value: unchanged.
Press and Pull
"Let it ride after wins, pull after losses."
The Math
Each roll is an independent trial. Prior outcomes have zero predictive value. "Pressing" after wins is intuition-based, not math-based. EV per unit bet: identical to flat betting.
The 5-Count
"Only bet after a shooter proves themselves."
The Math
The 5-Count reduces your exposure (fewer bets = less EV loss overall) but does not change the house edge on any individual bet. It's variance reduction via volume reduction, not edge reduction.
Signature Numbers
"This shooter always hits 6s."
The Math
The probability of rolling a 6 before a 7 is always 45.45%. Always. Observing past rolls provides zero information about future independent events. This is the Gambler's Fallacy with a name.
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